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Discussion The Death of Motorcycles?

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by maelstrom, Jul 1, 2022.

  1. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    FIXED it for you..... and again... :stayontopic:
     
  2. maelstrom

    maelstrom LiteTek Staff Member Premium Member 250cc Vendor Contributing Member

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  3. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    Interesting that Seb Vettell took Old Red 5 (Nigell Mansell's World chamionship winning V10) for a blast around Silverstone last week... the screaming V10 running on a fully sustainable Carbon Neutral E Fuel...
    It also appears that common thinking is that the future will NOT be Electric but a combination of Hybrid, Hydogen or Hybrid, E fuel... Here in Australia there are limitations like not many other places... being such a large continent and our population in little clusters mostly dotted around the Coastline. We travel large distances in many cases... For me to be able to my job I need a vehicle that will cover up to 1000km (or close to it) in a day and be able to be re-fueled in a short period (5 minutes to fill up with diesel and pay for it). Electric or any other viable non petroleum fuel is a very, very long way from being able to that, and that is the case for a good proportion of the population... not to mention those that haul 3.5 tonnes of caravan around etc.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 8, 2022
  4. maelstrom

    maelstrom LiteTek Staff Member Premium Member 250cc Vendor Contributing Member

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    Hey @Andych way cool. I just watched it on Youtube. It is Seb's car. He bought it. Just brilliant.
    Back to the e-fuel, if Porsche pulls this off then they may have the entire world of ICE sports cars to themselves. They can charge whatever they like and people who don't want an appliance will pay it. In any case, it is going to be very interesting to see how it pans out. I wonder if any bike manufacturer will follow suit.
     
  5. jmw76

    jmw76 Well-Known Member

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    I like the concept of eFuel.
    Just to put things into perspective, the Porsche eFuel article for the plant in Tasmania cites a production output of 100 million litres of fuel per year by 2026. Enough to fuel about 100,000 road cars per year, each travelling 10,000 kms.
    Sounds impressive. However it will need a plant consuming 250MW of power (per day?) to achieve this. That is 1/5 of the total electricity generating capacity of Tasmania.
    I think I have my calculations correct. Happy for someone to double check.

    Peter.
     
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  6. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    Probably correct... unfortunately any of the alternatives are going to consume a lot of power... at least in Tasmania there is a viable option of Hydro.
    Interesting that nobody looks at the production costs associated with Petrol or Diesel.. .I wonder how they stack up against the energy cost to produce E-fuels or Hydrogen.
    I have stayed away from the discussion on current renewable power as I am not a fan of either Solar or Wind, I consider both to be a blight on our beautiful countryside.
    It used to be that the big Oil Companies had such a hold on the world that any alternatives were swept under the carpet.
    I am sure that the brilliant minds out there will arrive a viable alternatives to ensure traditional transport methods (ICE) will still be with us for a very long time.
     
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  7. jmw76

    jmw76 Well-Known Member

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    Interestingly, applying the same amount of energy required to produce that 100 million litres of fuel to an electric vehicle fleet will support 2.2M vehicles travelling 10,000kms each year.
    Is the eFuel advantage, in being able to use existing infrastructure/technology, worth the order of magnitude difference in the number of vehicles that can be supported for the same level of electrical energy???
     
  8. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    I dont know that the figures can be interpreted in that way, it is a very simplistic view... what size of EV? There is a vast difference to charging a baby Hyundai or Nissan to that of a Full size Tesla, Rivian, Range Rover etc, not to mention the coming Ford E250 and Chevy, Dodge Ram equivalents just the same as there are variations in the size of vehicles that would use e-fuel or currently consume petrol or Diesel. I doubt the current infrastructure would even cope with a large influx of EV's considering there were massive blackouts last summer and at the beginning of winter due to Electical supply issues. Then there is the rising cost of Electricity...
    Plus, how many people with vehicles "only" travel 10,000km per year? Between my wife and I we are up over 70,000 a year.
    I live in a regional area but even when I was in Sydney the km were similar. If it werent for floods etc this year (and having a car waiting for parts for 6 months) I would have done 75000 myself so generalising on XXX cars doing XXXkm per year for XXX energy has no real relevance.
    You then have the fact there are no set "standards" for EV chargers.. there have been instances here where someone drove up from Melbourne only to find the available "public" chargers didnt work on her car... she had to have the car towed nearly 80km away to a place that had a suitable charing facility... No doubt these things will change... but it wont be overnight.
    I am not saying EV "only", wont happen... but I doubt it will... there will be other alternatives that will prove to be more efficient, cheaper to produce etc as time goes on. The Death of motorcycles soon.... hopefully not in my lifetime.
     
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  9. Frankster

    Frankster Grey Pride...Adventure before Dementia Staff Member Premium Member Ride and Events Crew

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    I have stayed away from the discussion on current renewable power as I am not a fan of either Solar or Wind, I consider both to be a blight on our beautiful countryside.

    Nah, it's all good...

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills

    Personally, I don't think ICE machines are doomed just yet, but the good wife and I have discussed our next car and it will be a hybrid. Like Andy, I can't afford to have something that won't do long distances and takes forever to charge, so a hybrid gives me the best of both world's economy and distance. If it's eFuel or some other carbon neutral and non-toxic alternative doesn't concern me. What concerns me is how much of a hit it is to the hip pocket. I watched a good doco about Graphene batteries the other day, so I'm of the opinion that fast charging and lite weight batteries aren't too far away.

    https://www.androidauthority.com/graphene-batteries-explained-1070096/

    I think I'd like to try and retro fit an electric drive to an older bike to keep the look and try the quiet. One day?

    Didn't Tesla (the person) find a way to 'charge' the entire planet? I seem to recall everyone would have a 'lightning rod' sticking out of their homes and that would power everything. I might have dreamt that, but if I didn't, then that would get around all the infrastructure issues associated with electric vehicles. In the end, no-one is interested in anything they can't make a buck out of, so the chance of the authorities doing what's best for the planet is linked to how rich they can get while doing it.
     
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  10. maelstrom

    maelstrom LiteTek Staff Member Premium Member 250cc Vendor Contributing Member

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    Want to have a discussion about global nonsense? Okay
    Australia is less than 1.2% of global CO2 emissions
    THE END

    Anyway I am feeling optimistic about e-fuels. They will only get cheaper and more available. As @mboddy said they are for my hobby bikes. ICE might be banned in the UK but here in Thailand people are not going to give up there 150 mpg Honda Waves in any hurry and it doesn't matter what laws the government makes the people will just ignore them and so will the police. That is because there is no welfare here. People have to survive. "You all have to drive $50000 electric cars because we are the government." Yeah, good luck with that. Try that in India and see how it works out. Royal Enfields forever hooray!

    That is 1/5 of the total electricity generating capacity of Tasmania.
    Ummm, Tas total power production is in gigawatts. Need to do a bit of digging to sort these figures out. suffice to say that don't think it would be getting off the ground if it wasn't viable. They have only chose Tas and Chile so far and both have abundant wind power.
     
  11. Frankster

    Frankster Grey Pride...Adventure before Dementia Staff Member Premium Member Ride and Events Crew

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    That is because there is no welfare here. People have to survive.

    Bingo, we have a winner. There's nothing like hunger to put everything into perspective! Nobody is interested in renewable this and sustainable that when their children are starving to death.

    That is 1/5 of the total electricity generating capacity of Tasmania.
    Power in TAS is mostly Hydro as Andy pointed out. And, somehow, we're linked to the mainland electricity grid? I think we export power to the mainland? Meanwhile, in our area, we get brownouts and blackouts every couple of weeks just to remind us of how it felt living 60 years ago! And, power in TAS is NOT cheap. TAS has a population of just over 520,000 people and other than the two big cities that have gas infrastructure/supplies for heating [Hobart (population 260,000 approx.) and Launceston (population 66,000)] heating in all other areas is mostly done through burning trees. It's only been in the last few years that government rules have promoted heat pumps (split system aircon) instead of fireplaces be included in new homes and retrofitted to existing ones. I hope the e-fuel thing takes off down here, so go Porsche. I have a few hobby bikes that I'd like to keep riding until I can't ride no more.

    Sorry to drag the thread off course again.
     
  12. jmw76

    jmw76 Well-Known Member

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    Wow, we stirred up a bit of discussion.

    Yes, the hip pocket is largely going to drive what happens regardless of what the tree huggers might think.
    Different countries will have different levels of uptake and technology preferences due to their unique circumstances.

    Personally, I like the idea of being able to use eFuel to keep my ICE machinery alive into the future.

    Hydrids seem to be a good compromise for many requirements. The long distance travel and lack of EV connectivity/charging standards are a major issue. Maybe new battery technology will overcome the slow charging issue but we will still need to build the infrastructure to enable widespread EV deployment.

    Now for my apology.
    I found an error in my calculations
    (sorry) which swings the balance heavily in favour of eFuel!!!!!!

    Some detail behind my calculations:
    - Published generating capacity of Tas ~ 11,000 GWh per year (predominantly renewable)
    - Porshe eFuel plant electricity requirements = 250MW which is 2,190 GWh per year of energy (assuming 24/7 plant operation). So 1/5 of Tas current generation capacity. So Tas have to add another 20+% generating capacity in 4 years to support the plant!!!

    - Tesla advertise that their vehicles have a range of 600+ km now. Assuming a 60kWh battery, this gives an energy consumption of 10kWh/100km. So taking the Tesla numbers as typical, 2,000 GWh of energy should give around 20 millon car kilometers.

    - Now for the Porsche EFuel plant output of 100 million litres per year. Assuming a typical ICE vehicle fuel consumption of 10L/100km (probably a lot better than your average Porsche driver would see) we get an equivalent of 1,000 million car kilometers!!!! WOW!

    Looking at this another way, we will need 50 times more electricity generation capacity to support the same number of EVs as we would eFuel fueled cars.

    Maybe our ICE machines will be usable for many more years to come.
    Yippee!!!!
    Bring on eFuel.

    This is all based on a big assumption that the published Porsche plant output and energy consumption numbers are in fact real. If so, why shouldn't our governments spend more time on this?

    Feel free to call me out if you think I have stuffed up on my calculations again or you believe my assumptions are invalid.

    Peter.
     
  13. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    Peter, I think what your post does is to highlight how easy it can be to get some statistical info a bit askew and it gives a very different outcome... and it is very easy for people or groups who are passionate about the subject to take the wrong info and use it to justify their position..and I guess it has always been that way and will most likely not change...
    Now I wonder if a Hydrogen powered V8 will still sound like a V8??? Hmmmm
     
  14. flea

    flea Well-Known Member Premium Member Contributing Member

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    was that v8 or VB
     
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  15. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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    Its a race engine but it sounds pretty good... there is hope :)
     
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  16. Andych

    Andych Moderator Staff Member Premium Member Contributing Member Dirty Wheel Club

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  17. maelstrom

    maelstrom LiteTek Staff Member Premium Member 250cc Vendor Contributing Member

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    MotoGP is switching to e-fuels, good news.
    https://www.motogp.com/en/news/2021/11/24/motogp-racing-towards-the-fuel-of-the-future/403155
    I like this quote
    "Global motorcycle sales amount to 60 million units per annum and two-wheeled transportation is a necessity for a huge proportion of the population, with over two billion motorcycles on the world’s roads. In many nations two-wheeled vehicles drive society."
    I live in one of those countries. Hope springs eternal.
     
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  18. Gizziracer

    Gizziracer Well-Known Member Contributing Member

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    Hmmmm. A Savic (0 to 100 in 3 seconds)
    One of Elon’s big home batteries
    A row of solar panels
    Some change from $40,000
    (Don’t mention the co2 created in building and disposal)
    Green motorcycling Nivana :)
     
  19. maelstrom

    maelstrom LiteTek Staff Member Premium Member 250cc Vendor Contributing Member

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    Too funny, the brown seat is perfect. Bet there will be some early adopters who can't wait to ride that gem to their local Starbucks.
     
  20. Gizziracer

    Gizziracer Well-Known Member Contributing Member

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    7EC9F0DE-10F7-43A4-9BF6-FCB029D2A0FF.jpeg I really want to do a test ride on one … I think the vibration free massive power delivery would be pretty impressive… just have to keep it under a blanket, even when riding , to solve the massive beating it’s suffered with the ugly stick..
    I do support this companies enthusiasm though… not a lot of Australian vehicle manufacturers atm even though our population is big enough and we dig up almost all the natural resources required to manufacture these.
     
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